In March we told customers to expect routing via the Cape of Good Hope indefinitely, with 10 to 14 days expected on sailings from the Indian Subcontinent. Eight months on, the picture has turned. Carriers are moving capacity back through the Suez Canal, and it shows up clearly in our own schedules for our busiest lane, Chittagong to Halifax.

What our schedule data shows

We track every carrier-published sailing from Chittagong to Halifax in our schedule feed. This is how the scheduled time from departure at Chittagong to arrival at Halifax has moved through 2026:

Chart of 131 Chittagong to Halifax sailings in 2026 by departure date. Scheduled transit was a median of 38 days in January and February and 42 days from March to May. There were no confirmed sailings in June. In July and August, sailings routed through Europe took a median of 60 days. There were no confirmed sailings in September. October sailings are back to a median of 36 days.
  • January–February: a median of 38 days, with one transshipment, usually in Colombo.
  • March–May: a median of 42 days. Still one transshipment, but schedules were stretching.
  • June: no confirmed sailings. The only routings on offer were placeholders with no onward vessel named.
  • July–August: a median of 60 days, ranging from 48 to 74. Cargo was routed through Europe, with a second transshipment in Rotterdam or Antwerp.
  • September: no confirmed sailings again.
  • October: a median of 36 days, back to a single transshipment in Colombo. Every sailing departing from 16 October is scheduled at 35 or 36 days.

Put simply, a container leaving Chittagong now is scheduled to reach Halifax about three and a half weeks sooner than one that left in July, and slightly sooner than one that left in January.

Two real sailings drawn to scale. A summer sailing that left Chittagong on 18 July waited 11 days in Colombo, went via Rotterdam with a 4-day wait and reached Halifax in 60 days. An October sailing leaving on 23 October waits 6 days in Colombo and reaches Halifax in 35 days.

About the numbers: these are carrier-published schedules, not actual arrival times, as published up to 15 October. The October figures come from 10 sailings on three vessels. Placeholder routings without a confirmed onward vessel are left out.

Why it is happening

Carriers have been steadily moving services back to the Red Sea and Suez route. Alphaliner estimates that between mid-September and mid-October, 5.5 million of the 8.7 million TEU deployed between the Far East and Europe, or 63%, ran via Suez, a route that saves about two weeks of sailing compared with the Cape (Ship & Bunker). On our lane, the direct connection from Colombo to North America that disappeared from our schedules in June is back, with transit times consistent with the shorter routing.

It is a partial recovery, not a full one. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 2.19 million TEU of container capacity through Suez in September. That is up 40% on August but only about 37% of September 2023, before the Houthi campaign began (Lloyd’s List Intelligence).

What it means for your cargo

  • Lead times. If you have been planning around eight to nine weeks port to port, you can start planning Q1 orders around five to six weeks from Chittagong to Halifax. Keep a buffer: the first October sailings were still scheduled at 44 to 48 days while connections settled.
  • Freight costs and surcharges. Shorter routes free up ships, which puts downward pressure on rates, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence reports Asia–Europe spot rates already falling as capacity returns. Check whether any emergency, war-risk or Cape-routing surcharges added since March are still on your invoices, and ask us to review any quote that still assumes the longer routing.
  • Contracts. Avoid long commitments priced on the longer routing, but do not renegotiate on the assumption that Suez is back for good either. Shorter terms and review clauses keep room to move both ways.

Why not to bank on it yet

The route is reopening, not reopened. A Chinese-operated containership was fired on in the southern Red Sea on 7 October, and carriers can switch services back to the Cape at short notice, as they did in March. Our own data shows how quickly that happens: twice this year, in June and again in September, there were no confirmed sailings on this lane in our feed at all.

Our advice: plan Q1 on the shorter transit, but hold enough stock or schedule flexibility to absorb a three- to four-week delay if routings change again.

Talk to us

We will keep watching schedules on this lane and flag any change to routings or transit times. For a lead-time check on your upcoming orders, or a review of your current rates and surcharges, contact our operations team at info@primefreight.com.